As we approach 2024, Factorial’s VP, Global Sales JJ Livingstone forecasts what’s next for electric vehicle batteries:
The electric vehicle (EV) market is on an impressive growth trajectory. By 2030, the world of automobiles will be significantly transformed. The International Energy Agency’s Global EV Outlook indicates EVs (spanning both entirely electric models and plug-in hybrids) are expected to constitute a remarkable 35 percent of all new vehicle sales on a global scale. Let’s take a closer look at the role of solid-state batteries in supporting this massive transformation heading into 2024.
Range Anxiety Continues to Be a Top Consumer Concern 
The development of solid-state batteries is set to significantly mitigate range anxiety in EVs by providing a more energy-dense, yet lighter and smaller battery solution, enabling longer driving ranges and faster charging without the drawbacks of traditional lithium-ion batteries. This innovation is further bolstered by the current administration’s supportive stance towards EVs and advanced technologies. The anticipated federal grants for industrialization and pilot projects in 2024 are expected to fast-track the commercialization of solid-state battery technology, enhancing their role in the EV market.
With EV ranges getting longer, many drivers may still have range anxiety due to the small number of charging stations available. As battery innovation improves EV performance, there will still be significant investment in reliable charging infrastructure—drivers need to see ample places to charge, with less broken chargers and waiting for public chargers to become available, to feel confident enough to buy an EV.
Expect an Increase in EV Demand, and Lower Costs for Supplies
In 2023, U.S. EV sales surpassed 1 million—the first time EV sales exceeded that threshold in a single year. With sales up 50.7 percent year-over-year, it’s clear that EV demand remains strong. Recent reports of slower-than-expected growth causing automakers to ramp down production is just a small roadblock in an otherwise strong market that is reaching maturity. Next year, we anticipate a surge in EV demand accompanied by a decrease in costs due to new models entering the market giving consumers much-needed options and heightened competition from automakers.
The maturation of the battery recycling market and the emergence of new raw material suppliers, particularly in the U.S., is anticipated to further reduce costs. For example, this year lithium-ion battery prices hit a record low, dropping 14 percent from 2022. This is due to growing supply from all major producers outpacing the rise in demand from battery users. As new suppliers and mines become operational, and the recycling market grows to produce significant volumes for battery production, overall costs are expected to decrease and trickle down to consumers.
Beyond EVs: Where Else Could Solid-State Batteries Be Used?
Solid-state batteries are highly effective for EVs, but also have vast potential in various other sectors due to their superior safety and energy density compared to current lithium-ion batteries. They are particularly suitable for electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) aircrafts, where safety and weight are critical. This year ended with a strong milestone with an eVTOL aircraft taking the first flight in New York City, a strong symbol for the growth we expect in 2024. Beyond eVTOL, solid-state batteries could revolutionize commercial vehicles, construction and agriculture equipment, energy storage systems, and consumer electronics, offering significant advancements in these areas. As solid-state battery technology is commercialized for EVs, these large EV battery volumes will drive factory investment and ultimately adoption across these verticals. Future use cases will involve renewable energy companies utilizing solid-state batteries for grid-level energy storage, or aerospace benefiting from the enhanced performance and reliability for electric aircraft.
What Do Solid-State Batteries Need to Advance in 2024?
Collaboration will remain essential to overcome the lengthy development processes and strict regulatory requirements in the battery industry, which are necessary for progressing to commercial-scale production. Close cooperation with equipment manufacturers to develop machinery tailored to specific manufacturing needs is a critical aspect of this effort. Building upon partnerships with OEMs, as demonstrated by the investments from companies like Hyundai Motor Co., Stellantis, and Mercedes-Benz in innovative platforms, will not only enable entry into emerging markets such as eVTOL and energy storage but also expand the influence and reach of emerging battery technologies. These collaborations, combined with government support initiatives like the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and the European Commission’s Green Deal, will streamline the transition from laboratory-scale experimentation to mass production, ultimately enhancing the resilience and cost-effectiveness of the supply chain in a rapidly growing market.
How Close Are We to Solid-State Battery Commercialization?
In 2023, significant achievements in solid-state battery technology included Factorial’s successful production of 100Ah quasi-solid-state battery cells, which passed UN 38.3 testing for safe shipment to customers. These accomplishments demonstrate both the feasibility of the technology and its scalability for larger production volumes.
Looking ahead to 2024, there is strong confidence in making rapid progress toward market-ready solid-state batteries. The technology, raw materials, and equipment closely resemble those used in lithium-ion batteries, enabling a swift transition to production. Several solid-state battery companies, including Factorial, anticipate reaching A or B sample validation levels in 2024. This validation milestone signifies that the solid-state batteries meet initial functionality and safety criteria, paving the way for potential road-testing opportunities and marking a significant step forward in the path to commercialization.
With Factorial poised to achieve these critical A/B validation milestones for its solid-state batteries in 2024, we are committed to driving substantial advancements in bringing these next-generation batteries from laboratories to real-world applications.
